The College Football Playoff (CFP) has evolved into one of the most anticipated annual events in college sports, and with every new season comes fresh predictions and analyses that speculate on which teams will make the cut. For the 2025 season, many eyes are on the powerhouse conferences, particularly the Southeastern Conference (SEC), which has been a perennial force in college football. As the SEC continues to showcase its dominance, some surprising and nuanced storylines are emerging. Among these is the prediction that the Alabama Crimson Tide, one of the most successful teams in CFP history, could potentially miss out on a spot in the 2025 playoff despite the SEC’s overall resurgence.
The Resurgence of the SEC
The SEC, long considered the most competitive and dominant conference in college football, is experiencing a renaissance of sorts heading into 2025. With powerhouses like Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee rising to elite status, the conference is only getting deeper and more competitive. Georgia, in particular, has positioned itself as the new gold standard after winning consecutive national championships, a feat that has propelled the Bulldogs to a level of sustained excellence that few programs can match.
LSU, under head coach Brian Kelly, has returned to championship contention after a brief lull, while Tennessee, with the explosive offense engineered by Josh Heupel, has transformed itself into a perennial contender. Even schools like Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Kentucky have raised their profiles, making the SEC more unpredictable and harder to navigate. While Alabama remains a dominant force, their path to the playoff has become increasingly difficult, especially with the rise of other SEC programs.
Alabama’s Continued Excellence
Under head coach Nick Saban, Alabama has been the model of consistency in college football. Since the advent of the CFP in 2014, Alabama has appeared in the playoff six times, winning three national titles. Saban has built a program that reloads talent rather than rebuilds it, and the Crimson Tide are always among the favorites for the playoff. However, with the SEC growing more competitive and other programs closing the talent gap, Alabama is no longer a guaranteed playoff team.
In 2025, Alabama’s roster remains filled with talent, but several factors could prevent them from securing one of the four coveted playoff spots. Saban’s ability to develop quarterbacks has been questioned in recent years, with the Tide’s quarterback play in flux since Tua Tagovailoa left for the NFL. Alabama has seen multiple quarterbacks come and go, but none have reached the elite level of play expected from Alabama signal-callers in the past. As of 2025, Alabama’s quarterback situation could still be unsettled, leaving the team vulnerable in a high-stakes conference where every game counts.
Additionally, Alabama has faced stiff competition from other SEC powerhouses that are beginning to assert themselves in the recruiting and development sectors. Georgia, for example, has quickly established itself as a juggernaut, and LSU’s revamped offense has proven difficult to stop. Tennessee’s high-powered attack also presents a challenge for any defense, including Alabama’s. With the SEC’s rising competition, the margin for error has shrunk for the Crimson Tide, and a slip-up against a conference rival could mean the difference between a playoff berth and a New Year’s Six bowl appearance.
The Playoff Landscape in 2025
The 2025 season presents a unique set of circumstances for the playoff field. With four spots on the line, each conference is trying to secure a spot for its best team, but the competition is fierce. In the SEC, the usual suspects—Alabama, Georgia, and LSU—are the prime contenders, but new challengers like Tennessee and Ole Miss could also be in the mix. Additionally, the Big Ten, led by Ohio State and Michigan, will be as competitive as ever, and teams like USC from the Pac-12 and Oklahoma from the Big 12 could also be strong playoff contenders.
The expanded playoff field, which will eventually feature 12 teams, could alleviate some of the pressure on teams like Alabama, but for the 2025 season, only the top four teams will make it, and the competition is expected to be stiff. As such, Alabama could find itself on the outside looking in if it falters in crucial games, particularly against SEC rivals like Georgia or LSU. In a crowded playoff race, any misstep could be enough to cost a team a spot, especially when other conferences boast their own set of powerhouse teams.
Potential Playoff Contenders Outside the SEC
Although the SEC has historically dominated the playoff, other conferences are also increasingly competitive. The Big Ten, for example, is home to two of the most consistent programs in the country: Michigan and Ohio State. Both teams are expected to be major playoff contenders in 2025, and a one-loss team from the Big Ten, even with a tough schedule, could easily earn a spot over a two-loss Alabama team. With Michigan’s recent success, including a College Football Playoff appearance and a Big Ten Championship win, the Wolverines have established themselves as one of the top teams in the country.
The Big 12 also offers a legitimate contender in Oklahoma, which has been on an upward trajectory since bringing in Brent Venables as head coach. The Sooners could make a push for a playoff berth if they can get past the likes of Texas and other conference rivals. Additionally, the Pac-12, though traditionally seen as a weaker conference, is poised for an upswing with teams like USC and Oregon consistently competing at a high level. These programs could complicate Alabama’s path to the playoff, especially if one of them runs the table in their respective conferences.
A Resilient SEC But a Challenging Road Ahead
The road to the 2025 CFP is likely to be a more difficult one for Alabama than in years past. While the Crimson Tide remain a force, the SEC’s overall strength has made every game feel like a must-win, and the number of competitive programs in the conference means that a single loss could derail a team’s playoff hopes. Alabama’s schedule is never easy, and with the rise of Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee, it’s entirely possible that the Crimson Tide could finish with two losses and still be excluded from the CFP.
In recent years, the SEC has been able to place multiple teams in the CFP, but in 2025, the conference’s strength could lead to a situation where only one SEC team makes the playoff. If Georgia remains dominant and LSU or Tennessee has a one-loss season, they may leapfrog Alabama in the rankings. Even if Alabama wins the SEC West, they could still be shut out of the playoff if they lose the SEC Championship game to a team like Georgia or LSU, especially if other conferences have teams with fewer losses.
Alabama’s fate in the 2025 season will largely depend on how their quarterback situation develops, how their defense performs against high-powered offenses, and how they fare in key matchups against SEC rivals. If they can navigate these hurdles, they will still be a playoff contender, but the increasing competition within the SEC and across the nation makes their path to the CFP far from guaranteed.
