Despite the Most Recent Organizational Rankings, Two Baltimore Orioles Prospects Show Promise for Future Impact

The Baltimore Orioles have undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years, emerging from a period of rebuilding to become one of the most promising teams in Major League Baseball. Central to this resurgence has been a revamped farm system, which now ranks among the top in the sport. This progress is not just attributed to the established stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but also to the wealth of talent lurking just beneath the surface. However, rankings of organizational depth, while useful, often fail to capture the full potential of individual players. Despite the most recent rankings, two Baltimore Orioles prospects—Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad—represent future game-changers who could outshine their current rankings and make significant impacts on the team in the coming years.

Colton Cowser: A Future All-Star Center Fielder?

Colton Cowser has long been seen as one of the Orioles’ most promising prospects, yet despite his undeniable potential, he hasn’t always been ranked at the very top of the organization’s prospect lists. In the most recent rankings, Cowser came in at number three, trailing behind the likes of Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. But a deeper dive into his performance and trajectory suggests that Cowser might be ready to make the leap into the top tier, and his future could be brighter than some believe.

A Strong Start to His Professional Career

Drafted by the Orioles with the fifth overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Cowser has impressed with his combination of tools and approach. Initially viewed as a well-rounded hitter with solid plate discipline and a strong understanding of the strike zone, Cowser has lived up to those expectations. His debut professional season saw him move quickly through the minor league ranks, posting solid numbers at each level.

At Double-A Bowie in 2023, Cowser showcased an excellent on-base percentage (OBP) and a strong ability to get on base via walks, making him a valuable offensive asset. His advanced bat control and approach at the plate make him a difficult out, and his discipline has helped him maintain strong hitting numbers, including power and batting average, as he moved through the system.

What Makes Cowser Stand Out?

While Cowser’s ranking has been solid, it is his advanced baseball IQ and his well-rounded skill set that truly sets him apart. His ability to adjust to pitchers’ strategies, coupled with his ability to hit for both average and power, makes him an intriguing future piece for the Orioles. Over his time in the minors, Cowser has demonstrated not only his ability to hit to all fields but also his potential to be a 20-20 player, combining 20 or more home runs with 20 or more stolen bases.

In addition to his bat, Cowser has shown an impressive ability to handle center field defensively. Though there are still some questions regarding his top-end speed, his instincts and ability to track the ball in the outfield suggest that he has the potential to be a plus defender in center field. If he can stick in center, Cowser could become a key player in the Orioles’ outfield for years to come.

Why His Ranking Might Be Too Low

Despite his skill set and potential, Cowser’s ranking often lags behind other top prospects like Jackson Holliday or Gunnar Henderson. Part of this may stem from the perception that Cowser’s ceiling is slightly lower than that of others in the system, particularly in terms of raw power. While he possesses a good combination of contact ability and extra-base power, he may not profile as a true 30-home-run hitter, which sometimes causes evaluators to rank him lower than those with more raw power potential.

That said, Cowser’s approach at the plate, coupled with his ability to make adjustments and continue improving his swing, suggests that his ceiling is higher than some realize. If he continues to develop at his current rate, Cowser could be a future All-Star center fielder for the Orioles, outpacing the expectations set by his current organizational ranking.

Heston Kjerstad: The Power-Hitting Corner Outfielder

Heston Kjerstad’s journey to becoming one of the Orioles’ most intriguing prospects has been anything but conventional. Drafted second overall by the Orioles in 2020, Kjerstad was viewed as one of the most advanced bats in the draft. However, his career was stalled for nearly two full years due to health issues, including myocarditis, which forced him to miss much of his early development. Despite these setbacks, Kjerstad has rebounded in impressive fashion, showcasing the raw power that made him such a highly sought-after prospect.

Kjerstad’s Power Surge

Kjerstad’s defining characteristic is undoubtedly his power. When healthy, he has the type of bat speed and strength that could translate into 30+ home runs annually at the major league level. Since returning to action, Kjerstad has proven that he has not only regained his lost time but has also shown the ability to hit for both average and power. His 2023 season at Double-A Bowie saw him show glimpses of his raw power, posting a slugging percentage that ranked among the best in the organization.

In addition to his raw power, Kjerstad has also displayed impressive contact ability, striking out at a relatively modest rate given his power-oriented approach. While his swing can sometimes get long, leading to swings and misses, his bat speed and strength allow him to make hard contact consistently. This combination of power and contact makes Kjerstad an exciting prospect, with the potential to be a middle-of-the-order hitter for the Orioles.

Questions Surrounding Defense and Health

While Kjerstad’s bat is his primary tool, there are questions regarding his defensive capabilities. A corner outfielder, Kjerstad has been projected to fit best in right field, but his defensive profile isn’t as polished as some of the Orioles’ other prospects. His arm strength is solid, but he lacks the elite athleticism to profile as a top-tier defender in the outfield. This limitation might prevent him from being a high-value player defensively, but his bat alone could make him a potent offensive force.

Another factor that has kept Kjerstad from reaching the very top of prospect lists is his health. Having missed two seasons due to myocarditis, there is always some lingering concern about his long-term durability. If Kjerstad can stay healthy, however, he possesses one of the most exciting bats in the system.

Kjerstad’s Future with the Orioles

Despite the health concerns and questions about his defense, Kjerstad’s bat gives him the potential to be an everyday player at the major league level, perhaps even an impact hitter in the heart of the Orioles’ lineup. His power potential, paired with his improving contact skills, makes him one of the most exciting prospects in the system, and it’s possible that his future in Baltimore could be as a key contributor to the team’s success.

Looking Ahead: How Cowser and Kjerstad Could Shape the Orioles’ Future

Both Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad represent critical pieces in the Orioles’ long-term plans, even if they aren’t currently ranked among the top prospects in the game. Cowser’s well-rounded game and high baseball IQ could make him a top-tier outfielder and leadoff hitter, while Kjerstad’s immense power and offensive upside could lead him to become a middle-of-the-order slugger. The Orioles’ player development system is known for nurturing players’ strengths and helping them refine their weaknesses, so it’s entirely possible that both Cowser and Kjerstad will continue to ascend through the system, making significant contributions to a contending team in the not-so-distant future.

In a system with as much depth as Baltimore’s, prospects like Cowser and Kjerstad can sometimes get overshadowed by higher-profile names like Jackson Holliday or Grayson Rodriguez. But with continued development, they have the potential to prove that their ceilings may be higher than their rankings suggest. Whether it’s through Cowser’s steady on-base skills and defensive consistency or Kjerstad’s raw power and offensive potential, both players are poised to make a significant impact in Baltimore in the coming years, shaping the future of the Orioles’ lineup and helping the team build sustained success.