Can the Gamecocks pull off the upset against Ole Miss?
The South Carolina Gamecocks’ Struggles and Strengths
The South Carolina Gamecocks (as of February 2025) are in the midst of a rebuilding phase under coach Lamont Paris. The team is facing a challenging season in the Southeastern Conference (SEC), having yet to register a win in conference play. They have gone through significant growing pains, both in terms of player development and adapting to the rigors of SEC basketball. Despite the record, South Carolina does have a few bright spots, which could play a crucial role in trying to pull off an upset against a strong Ole Miss team.
Offensive Challenges
South Carolina has been struggling to find consistency on the offensive end. The Gamecocks average only 69.9 points per game, ranking among the bottom of the SEC. Their shooting percentage of 42.5% is another indicator of their offensive inefficiencies. A significant part of this is the team’s inability to create easy baskets or hit consistent shots from outside the arc.
Guard play has been inconsistent, with turnovers also being a problem. Their primary ball handlers—such as Josh Gray and Ziaire Williams—have not been able to mitigate mistakes or facilitate smooth offensive execution. South Carolina’s offense relies heavily on individual efforts rather than smooth team execution, which becomes a major issue when they face well-organized and disciplined teams like Ole Miss.
The Gamecocks also struggle with shooting beyond the three-point line. At just 31% from beyond the arc, they’re among the least efficient teams in the SEC from deep. While a hot shooting night could give them a fighting chance, expecting such a performance against a team like Ole Miss is unrealistic without major improvements in their shot selection.
Defensive Resilience
On the flip side, South Carolina has been much stronger defensively. Their defense has been one of their only consistent facets this season. Averaging 69.7 points allowed per game, the Gamecocks are ranked 115th in the country in defensive efficiency. They are particularly strong in terms of limiting opponents’ second-chance opportunities, and their ability to disrupt passing lanes has allowed them to create transition scoring chances.
Much of this defensive energy has come from forward Collin Murray-Boyles, who is currently averaging 8.8 rebounds per game, ranking among the top players in the SEC in this category. His efforts on the boards will be crucial for South Carolina in limiting Ole Miss’s offensive rebounds, which could keep the Gamecocks in the game by preventing extra possessions for the Rebels.
Despite the bright spots in defense, South Carolina’s overall ability to close out games has been lacking. In tight situations, their inability to execute offensively in the final minutes has led to numerous heartbreaking losses. Against Ole Miss, this trend could be amplified, as the Rebels have shown themselves to be able to execute well under pressure.
The Ole Miss Rebels: A Tough Test for South Carolina
Ole Miss has had a significantly more successful season. Their 18-6 overall record and 7-4 mark in SEC play are reflective of their consistency and effectiveness on both ends of the floor. Under coach Chris Beard, the Rebels have developed a tough, no-nonsense defensive style that pairs well with a dynamic offense.
Offensive Depth
Offensively, Ole Miss is averaging 76.2 points per game, which ranks near the top of the SEC. The Rebels have several scoring threats, led by senior guard Matthew Murrell, who has been a key contributor both as a scorer and playmaker. Murrell is capable of scoring from anywhere on the floor, whether it’s knocking down three-pointers or driving to the basket. His ability to take over games is one of the main reasons why Ole Miss has been successful this season.
In addition to Murrell, the Rebels boast a well-balanced offensive attack, with Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray also contributing as scorers and facilitators. Pedulla’s ability to create plays and stretch defenses with his outside shooting makes him a critical part of Ole Miss’s offense. South Carolina’s guards will need to be sharp on defense, as letting Pedulla or Murrell dictate the tempo of the game could lead to a long night for the Gamecocks.
Ole Miss is also strong in terms of shooting efficiency. They rank highly in the SEC for field goal percentage at 46.3%, and they shoot a respectable 35% from beyond the arc. This shooting efficiency means that the Rebels are hard to stop, as they are capable of getting good looks both inside and from distance. For South Carolina, this will present a huge challenge, as their defense has struggled against teams that can shoot efficiently.
Defensive Dominance
On the defensive side of the ball, Ole Miss has been outstanding. They allow just 68.5 points per game and have the ability to lock down opposing offenses with their pressure defense. The Rebels’ defense is anchored by players like Malik Dia, who excels at defending in the paint and on the perimeter. His length and ability to contest shots could make life difficult for South Carolina’s shooters, who have not been able to generate consistent offense this season.
The Rebels also do a great job of forcing turnovers. They rank in the top half of the SEC in turnover margin, which means they can turn defensive stops into fast-break opportunities. For a South Carolina team that has struggled with ball security, this is a dangerous situation. If Ole Miss is able to exploit the Gamecocks’ mistakes, they could quickly build a lead and put the game out of reach.
Key Matchups: What Needs to Go Right for South Carolina
In order for South Carolina to pull off the upset, several things would need to fall into place. First and foremost, they would need to be able to break through Ole Miss’s defense and create easy scoring opportunities. This could come from strong individual performances—perhaps from players like Gregory Jackson or Chico Carter Jr. But even more important is their ability to execute as a team. Quick ball movement, attacking the basket, and hitting open shots will be critical to avoid falling into the trap of relying solely on contested jump shots.
The Gamecocks will also need to control the boards. Ole Miss is a strong rebounding team, and South Carolina cannot afford to give the Rebels extra possessions. Players like Collin Murray-Boyles and Leondre Washington will have to be aggressive on the glass to ensure that South Carolina limits second-chance opportunities.
Additionally, South Carolina’s guard play needs to be much improved if they’re to have any shot. The Gamecocks have shown flashes of offensive brilliance, but they have been turnover-prone and inconsistent. If they cannot handle the pressure defense of Ole Miss, it could be a short game.
Finally, South Carolina will need a standout performance from their defensive unit. They will need to slow down Ole Miss’s backcourt, particularly Murrell and Pedulla, while also limiting offensive rebounds. The Gamecocks’ ability to disrupt the Rebels’ rhythm could be the key to staying competitive in this game.
Ole Miss: A Tough Road Ahead Despite Their Advantage
Ole Miss, despite their high ranking and impressive record, cannot afford to overlook South Carolina. While they are the favorites heading into this game, the Rebels’ tendency to struggle on the road and allow teams to stay in games could provide South Carolina with an opening. Additionally, Ole Miss has not been invincible this season. Their losses have often come from teams that were able to hit timely shots and expose some of their defensive vulnerabilities.
If Ole Miss doesn’t come prepared and allows South Carolina to control the pace of the game, the Gamecocks could sneak up and make it a close contest. Still, it would take a significant amount of effort and execution from the Gamecocks to exploit Ole Miss’s weaknesses.
Prediction
Based on their current form, Ole Miss is the clear favorite in this matchup. Their offensive firepower and defensive strength should be too much for South Carolina to overcome, especially given the Gamecocks’ struggles in SEC play. While South Carolina’s defense and rebounding could keep the game close, Ole Miss’s balanced attack, combined with their ability to execute in crucial moments, should allow them to come out on top.
 Ole Miss 78, South Carolina 66
In conclusion, while an upset is possible, it would require a near-perfect performance from South Carolina. The Gamecocks would need to capitalize on Ole Miss’s potential mistakes, execute efficiently on offense, and rely on their strong defense to slow down the Rebels. However, unless there’s a major breakdown on Ole Miss’s part, the Rebels are likely to emerge victorious in this matchup.
