Why Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch has been shuffling the lines since January
The observant fan may have noticed a more hurried pace to Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch’s line matching since Jan. 1.
The team has been in search of that certain something, all while winning games at a rapid clip.
What is that certain something?
Based on results since Jan. 1, it appears the coaching staff is on a hard-target search for a winger who can flourish with Connor McDavid playing away from Leon Draisaitl five-on-five.
How pronounced is the issue? The numbers are shocking.
These numbers are borderline impossible, and suggest injury, fatigue or some other cause for the extreme lack of scoring and outscoring for McDavid solo. The Draisaitl solo numbers also trail the team’s performance when both men are off the ice at five-on-five since Jan. 1.
McDavid-Draisaitl
Let’s begin with the top of Edmonton’s mountain of talent, with captain McDavid and the brilliant Draisaitl. If we compare their numbers together and apart, and further split the season into two parts and include the time when both men are off the ice, what do we see?
In the first three months of the season, McDavid-Draisaitl dominated at an elite level. No combination in the NHL is more frightening than 97-29 playing at peak levels.
Since Jan. 1, in 137 minutes together, this diabolical duo has delivered solid production that doesn’t reach the impact of previous months. Since 137 minutes is a smaller sample, this number alone wouldn’t raise an eyebrow.
The McDavid solo minutes are just 133 in total, again a small sample. This line (the captain with various linemates not named Draisaitl) has an expected GF per 60 of 3.53 and an expected goal share of 59 percent.
The major outlier stat in these months for the McDavid solo line is shooting percentage (just 4.35 per 60) and save percentage (a mere .869). This is shy of the McDavid line without Draisaitl’s October through December shooting percentage (9.9) although the on-ice save percentage (.868) remained in the ditch.
When both McDavid and Draisaitl are off the ice, the third and fourth lines own a shooting percentage of 10.1 and a .935 save percentage. Contributing factors would include luck (many good things for the depth lines) and that Knoblauch isn’t asking the depth lines to face elite competition.
